By: A Omar Turbi, Expert, U.S Libya Relations -April 10th, 2022
U.S Strategy to Prevent Conflict & Promote Stability, Libya. Why, When & how?
Washington, April 10th, 2022: On Friday April 1st, 2022, U.S Secretary of State Antony Blinken rolled out an important initiative under the banner of U.S Strategy to Prevent Conflict & Promote Stability. A ten year plan which considered 100 nations around the world. The #MENA and #Africa are the primary regions. #Libya is on the top of only four nations selected by the United States.
Why Libya? There are obvious reasons why #Libya has made the short list; U.S and Western national security interests, strategic geopolitical location of Libya, its large Oil & Gas reserves, Russia’s 2/24/22 invasion of the Ukraine which threatens Europe’s dependence on energy from Russia.
According to the U.S State Department Press Release the U.S will spend billions of dollars to achieve its strategic goals over the next ten years in Libya.
With as much skepticism from some Libyan Experts, It’s hard to curb my enthusiasm. “We’ve been disappointed many times before” one said. Early this year I took the initiative to drum up support along the lines as the U.S strategy; I founded Libya Expert Team On Libyan Economic Affairs.
فريق الخبراء الليبيين في الشؤون الاقتصادية الليبية
The team of Libyan economists is modeled over Libya Expert Team On Libyan political Affairs.
فريق الخبراء الليبيين في الشؤون السياسية الليبية
I established mid 2020 with modest successes in support of the UN Political Track lead by Ghassan Salame and later Stephanie Williams.
فريق الخبراء الليبيين في الشؤون الاقتصادية الليبية
The team of Libyan economists is modeled over Libya Expert Team On Libyan political Affairs.
فريق الخبراء الليبيين في الشؤون السياسية الليبية
I established mid 2020 with modest successes in support of the UN Political Track lead by Ghassan Salame and later Stephanie Williams.
The strategy behind the initiative of the Libya Expert Team on Libyan Economic Affairs is much more focused than the U. S. one. The work of the team is evaluating current Libyan economic condition, and attempt to develop strategic plans for rebuilding institutions, human development, capacity building, transparency, accountability, and reducing corruption. This Libya Expert Team can achieve modest progress on those fronts by continuing to expand and diversify its membership.
In three months of interaction with members of the team my overall impression with 80% of the 10 members has been positive. It must be noted that there are symptoms on the team of kleptocracy. Much like the kleptocrats who either serve in recent corrupt Libyan governments or those who held positions in the Qaddafi regime. Resistance to diversity the members and expand the team, objecting to participation by none Libyan experts as guest speakers, and often anxious to offer themselves to be bureaucrats of the state with limited qualifications for those posts they seek.
Continued from LinkedIn
My level of enthusiasm for U.S Strategy to Prevent Conflict & Promote stability in Libya is tempered by its broad and far reaching vision. A Libyan friend, an accomplished senior executive in the Oil & Gas sector in the Middle East, an economist, wrote me when asked about the proposed U.S Strategy “Thx. But the United States policy towards any country in the region is not to be trusted or even believed. We have ample examples: Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan etc. With Libya, I don't think the Americans will do anything of value to help.”
I share my Libyan friend’s concerns. Was the U.S Strategy announced on 4/1/22 a reaction to Russia’s invasion of the Ukrainian? When the Biden Administration took office early 2021 friends like former Ambassador to Libya Gene Cretz encouraged me to join the Biden Administration in an advisory capacity on U.S Libya relations. I was enthusiastic at least at providing a vision that maybe seriously examined. Here is why?
(a). Everyone in the Biden foreign policy team; Jake Sullvan, NSC Director, and Antony Blinken, Secretary of State, are familiar people to me. They worked closely with Hillary Clinton, U.S Secretary of State in 2011 during the Libyan revolution and the Arab spring at which time I engaged the team.
(b). Hopes of much better Tans-Atlantic relations from Biden’s predecessor where the United States and its NATO European partners would prevent conflict and promote stability in Libya.
Is the Biden Administration finally listening to constructive voices? U. S Strategy introduced on April 1st gives me tremendous hope for rebuilding Libyan institutions with direct help from the United Stares, and the EU. Libyans should dismiss notions of sovereignty, and Western conspiracy. Those are road blocks to building the Libyan nation. As the common idiomatic phrase goes “It takes two to tango”. Libyans must participate, encourage the U.S Government, the European Community and their respective expert builders of institutions. Most important Libyans must define in CLEAR TERMS what we need and seek mutually respectable working relationship. Libya Expert Team On Libyan Economic Affairs could assist in designing a scope and sequencing in order of critical requirements
U.S Government can succeed in its strategy; prevent conflict and promote democracy in Libya. How?
1. The United States should not bite more than it can chew. Libya requires substantial work.
2. Start with building trust and confidence measures with Libyans you intend to work with and the Libyan public
3. Set realistic achievable goals, and avoid broad vague ambitions.
4. Design a scope and sequencing in order of critical requirements.
5. Be mindful of sensitivity to Libyans who have a different interpretation of the meaning of sovereignty but shouldn’t dwell on it.
6. Don’t be discouraged when we start to face obstacles.
7. Don’t quit or give up when security is breached. That’s inevitable.
8. Follow through with commitments.
2. Start with building trust and confidence measures with Libyans you intend to work with and the Libyan public
3. Set realistic achievable goals, and avoid broad vague ambitions.
4. Design a scope and sequencing in order of critical requirements.
5. Be mindful of sensitivity to Libyans who have a different interpretation of the meaning of sovereignty but shouldn’t dwell on it.
6. Don’t be discouraged when we start to face obstacles.
7. Don’t quit or give up when security is breached. That’s inevitable.
8. Follow through with commitments.
#Libya, #MiddleEast, #NorthAfrica, #MENA
Twitter: https://twitter.com/omarturbi/